I don't normally share reader email but when I receive this sort of thing, well... As I told this person, for a writer, to be read is a success; to be read and provoke thought is a victory; to be read and provoke thought that improves someo... More >

Presented complete and unedited for the historical record, a reader writes: "This is a load of bollocks! And I don't mean ordinary, common or garden bollocks, no, I mean "arty farty" bollocks: the sort of bollocks that gets right up the no... More >

I'd prefer not to be old enough that my childhood is now a source of pop-culture nostalgia, but there are worse mirrors than Stranger Things. And a mirror it is. See the kid with the bowl-cut below? (Yes, he's holding bear cubs. Ig... More >

I'm into the early phases of research for my next book, and that means heaps of reading. The books alone are, in a stack, precisely 14 inches taller than I am. So I asked on Twitter if anyone wanted to know what I'm reading. Some of you sa... More >

It's often been noted, rightly, that Donald Trump's "America First" approach to foreign policy is a repudiation of the internationalist approach -- that it is in the United States' interest to construct and lead a cooperative international ... More >

After doing an interview with ING, I was asked after the election to comment on the widespread perception that forecasting had failed horribly, experts know nothing, etc. Following is an email I sent in response. A little addendum: How peo... More >

At 3 PM on the afternoon of Election Day, I interviewed Robert Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, Under Secretary of State and Deputy Chief of Staff in the Bush Sr. administration, and Deputy Secretary of State in the Bush Jr. ad... More >

I've been researching the use (and abuse) of history lately, and that brought me to "The Power of the Past," an excellent new collection of essays published by Brookings. One essay looks at the role historical awareness played in the admini... More >

Thanks to the generosity of my boss (me) I had a reduced workload for the last couple of months. Naturally, I spent my time productively. Much wood was chopped, many fish were caught. (That's a lie. The fishing was as bad as the weather was... More >

From a hand-written letter sent to my UK publisher with a return address in one of Her Majesty's prisons: "I very much enjoyed your book Superforecasting and thought that you might like to know that it has bec... More >

How would you like to get a little smarter by listening to one of the funniest dick jokes ever told? I know. We all dream of such a thing. Or maybe that's only me. Either way, it sounds both glorious and implausible. But bear with me. Get t... More >

So I have some personal employment news to pass along. I would very much like to this keep short and sweet — it’s tedious when someone rattles on about his employment — but it’s complicated. Sorry. Bear with me. First, I am no longer edito... More >

Two years ago today a great man died. He was my father. That's Jim Gardner in the photo below. Don't be alarmed. That's not an ogre dragging hapless bears away for dinner. Dad was a biologist. Here, he is holding a pair of yearlin... More >

This is my shiny new website. Please have a look around. Like it? Got suggestions? Drop me an email at futurebabble@gmail.com ... More >