Dan Gardner is the New York Times best-selling author of Risk, Future Babble, and Superforecasting (with Philip E. Tetlock). His books have been published in 25 countries and 19 languages. Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was an award-winning investigative journalist. More >

Feature Article

COVID-19 And The Psychology Of Uncertainty

Mar 29, 2020

Originally published in the Globe and Mail, March 28, 2020

A black hood covered the prisoner’s head. A deafening roar fill... More >


My new newsletter: PastPresentFuture

Mar 20, 2022

Over at Substack, I started a newsletter called PastPresentFuture which is about "exploring history to understand today and shape a bette... More >

Preparing for the Next Big One

Jun 27, 2021

Stage one: A threat is foreseen. When and how it will strike isn’t known but that it will, sooner or later, is clear.

Stage two: W... More >

Infrastructure: Think Slow, Act Fast

Apr 06, 2021

Originally published in The Boston Globe, April 1, 2021

Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner

As Biden administration officials pr... More >

Featured Book

Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction

A New York Times bestseller Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why...

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