COVID-19 And The Psychology Of Uncertainty
Mar 29, 2020
Originally published in the Globe and Mail, March 28, 2020
A black hood covered the prisoner’s head. A deafening roar fill... More >
Dan Gardner is the New York Times best-selling author of Risk, Future Babble, and Superforecasting (with Philip E. Tetlock). His books have been published in 25 countries and 19 languages. Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was an award-winning investigative journalist. More >
Feature Article
Articles
My new newsletter: PastPresentFuture
Mar 20, 2022
Over at Substack, I started a newsletter called PastPresentFuture which is about "exploring history to understand today and shape a bette... More >
Preparing for the Next Big One
Jun 27, 2021
Stage one: A threat is foreseen. When and how it will strike isn’t known but that it will, sooner or later, is clear.
Stage two: W... More >
Infrastructure: Think Slow, Act Fast
Apr 06, 2021
Originally published in The Boston Globe, April 1, 2021
Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner
As Biden administration officials pr... More >
Featured Book
Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction
A New York Times bestseller — Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why...
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