Tags

Archive

Blogroll

The Predictable Folly Of Prediction

Wednesday, 09 November 2011 10:14

Last week, a desperate Europe asked a flush China for cash. It was a big moment. No mistaking that. But what did it mean?

No, this isn't a column about banking. Or globalization. It's about something much more important. It's about the future. And to understand the future, one must begin in the past. In this case, it's the past of two decades ago.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen

According to the United Nations, the world's population will top seven billion on Oct. 31. By 2050, there will likely be more than nine billion people on Earth.

So how do you feel about that? For many, these statistics are frightening as hell. Soaring population will surely lead to famine, resource depletion, poverty, disease, war, and environmental calamity. But for others - probably fewer in number - they are nothing to worry about. More people means more minds, more innovation, more technology, more wealth, and a better world.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen

The Decade of Terror That Wasn't

Monday, 05 September 2011 11:43

In early 2005, Richard Clarke, the former White House counter-terrorism chief, imagined himself in 2011, looking back on the decade that followed the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. What he saw was horrifying.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen

Shortly after the first reports of terror attacks in Norway, pundits and security experts confidently blamed Islamists. They were wrong. And in the days following the arrest of Anders Behring Breivik, they were excoriated for having let Islamophobia get the better of them.

That reaction was misguided.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen

It's The End Of America. Again.

Wednesday, 06 July 2011 07:24

Americans may have celebrated July 4th with the usual hotdogs and fireworks, but Uncle Sam was a sick old man on his 235th birthday. Deficits and debt. A moribund economy. Appalling unemployment. Crumbling infrastructure. Endless foreign wars. We all know the litany of ills. It's long and grim and the question for most observers is not whether Uncle Sam will continue to decline, but how far, and how fast.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen

Without a Crystal Ball, We Need Fighter Jets

Wednesday, 23 March 2011 07:32

Think back to the end of 2010. As always, there were lots of experts making predictions. About the stock market. The economy. Politics. War. How many of those experts said that within three months there would be a rebellion against the decades-old regime of Moammar Gadhafi, that Gadhafi would respond with criminal brutality, that the United Nations would authorize military force against Gadhafi's regime, and that fighter jets from Canada and other Western countries would be striking Libyan targets and enforcing a no-fly zone?

Answer: none.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen

No Need To Worry About Hidden Agendas

Friday, 28 January 2011 11:33

I'm not very good at reading minds and so, absent other evidence, I can't say if Michael Ignatieff is secretly planning to defile all that is good and righteous by forming a postelection coalition government with socialists, separatists, and satanists. I suppose he may. Stephen Harper sure sounds convinced. "They will deny it every day of the campaign," he recently told a reporter. "The day after, they'll do it."

I don't know how Harper knows that. I guess he's just better at reading minds than I am. Ignatieff did respond with a denial, after all. The prime minister said he would. Some people might say that's compelling evidence: Stephen Harper is psychic.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen

2010: The Year in Failed Predictions

Friday, 31 December 2010 07:47

We're coming to the end of the year and the pundits are lining up to tell us what's going to happen in the one to follow. And why not? People want to hear predictions. And for the expert, there's no way he can lose. If the prediction hits, he can boast about it and reporters will cite it as proof of his wisdom. But if it misses, no one will ever hear about it again.

Heads, I win. Tails, you forget we had a bet.

Of course the rules of the game would be a little different if, at the end of the year, instead of asking for new predictions, we looked back at what was predicted to happen in the year ending. Think of it as holding people to account for the predictions they make.

So let's get on with the humiliation.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen

Big Thinkers Often Make Big Mistakes

Wednesday, 29 December 2010 08:19

Foreign Policy magazine is devoted to big thinking about big issues and its December issue -- "The 100 Top Global Thinkers of 2010" -- is bigger than most. I commend it. For two reasons.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen

Should the government of Canada spend $16 billion on 65 of those supercool F-35 stealth fighter jets? I don't know. But I do know one of the arguments often made in the debate, explicitly or implicitly, is dangerously misguided. Worse, it's common. Extremely common. Planners of all sorts routinely fall for it -- and get themselves into serious trouble as a result.

Additional Info

  • Source © Ottawa Citizen
<< Start < Prev 1 2 Next > End >>
Page 1 of 2
trk porno