Faith doesn't make babies

So it turns out godlessness is to blame for the baby bust. That's the verdict of Pope Benedict XVI, who may not have personal experience with procreation but is quite certain he knows the reason why women are having fewer babies than ever before.

Secularism is at fault, he told visiting Canadian bishops. "One of the more dramatic symptoms of this mentality, clearly evident in your own region, is the plummeting birthrate."

He's certainly right that the birthrate is plummeting. From a high of almost four babies per woman at the peak of the post-war baby boom, Canada's total fertility rate has fallen to 1.5. That's among the lowest in the world, even the lowest in human history. An average of 2.1 -- which demographers call the replacement rate -- is needed just to keep the population from declining.

But is secularism really the root cause? The Pope is far from alone in thinking so. In social-conservative circles, it's practically an article of faith, if you'll forgive the pun. The proof? Europe. Godless, socialist, hedonist Europe has seen its fertility rates collapse and the continent faces a demographic crisis.

What conservatives rarely mention, though, is that fertility rates are collapsing all over the world. They are particularly low in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and other advanced Asian countries whose social fabric hardly resembles Europe's.

Conservatives also avoid the remarkable case of Iran. In 1975, that country's fertility rate was 6.4 babies per woman. In 1979, the secular government was overthrown and replaced with a theocracy. Then the fertility rate crashed. Today, it is 2.1. One wonders what the Pope would make of that.

More reasons to doubt the conservative line can be found right here in Canada.

The lowest fertility rates in the country are in the Atlantic provinces: Nova Scotia's rate is 1.4 babies per woman; New Brunswick, 1.4; Newfoundland, 1.3.

Alberta, by contrast, has a fertility rate of 1.7. Saskatchewan is at 1.9 and Manitoba 1.8. The Northwest Territories and Nunavut are tops at 2.0 and 3.1.

What do these variations tell us? Not much. It's impossible to correlate these numbers with secularism, liberalism, or any other ism. If there's a pattern at all, it's that bigger aboriginal populations mean more babies. Strong economies also help. But faith? If it's a factor, it's pretty minor.

Wait a second, conservatives will say. What about the United States?
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Among developed countries, the U.S. is uniquely religious and uniquely fecund. In the conservative imagination, this proves that faith makes babies.

"The U.S. fertility rate is bang at replacement rate: 2.1 births per woman. The Spaniards and Italians are at 1.1," writes Mark Steyn, a conservative commentator fond of contrasting virile Americans and limp Europeans. "These are dry numbers but there's something metaphysical and profound behind them."

If by "metaphysics" Mr. Steyn means Mexicans and mortgages, yes it has a lot to do with metaphysics. Otherwise, not really.

American fertility rates have fallen for most of the past two centuries. In the 1960s and 1970s, they fell in tandem with European fertility rates. In the 1970s, the U.S. rate not only dipped below replacement, it slipped below the European rate.

But in the years since, the American fertility rate recovered modestly and is hovering at or a hair below the 2.1 replacement rate. The European rate (like Canada's) didn't rise. Hence the gap today.

So the difference isn't nearly as dramatic as conservatives make it out to be. It also looks quite different when the numbers are broken down by race.

The fertility rate of white Americans slipped below the replacement rate in the early 1970s and it never recovered. Today it stands at about 1.8 babies per woman. That's a little higher than the total fertility rate in Canada and most European countries but it's slightly lower than in France and Ireland.

The fertility rate of black Americans -- 2.1 -- is higher than whites'. But the real stand-out is the fertility rate of Hispanic Americans: 2.7 babies per woman.

Even that figure hides important variations, however. Most American Hispanics have a fertility rate between 1.5 and 2.1 but Hispanics from Mexico have a fertility rate of almost three babies per woman -- astonishingly high in a developed country.

Subtract Hispanics from the American population and the fertility rate falls to 1.9. That's the same as France.

(Canada doesn't get the same fertility pop from immigration because our system is designed to let in PhDs from Hong Kong and keep out low-skill peasants -- and it's the latter that have lots of babies, not the former.)

Another key factor behind the American fertility rate is housing. In most countries facing a demographic crunch --such as Italy and Japan -- housing is unbearably expensive. As a result, men and women live in their parents' homes much longer. That delays marriage, which delays children. And when people put off having children, they will -- on average -- have fewer children than they would have had if they had started earlier.
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In the U.S., housing can be had with less money and effort than anywhere else thanks to easy credit terms. Americans can also deduct mortgage interest payments on their income taxes, making home ownership much more affordable. Mark Steyn, please take note: One reason why Americans have more babies than those hopeless Euro-socialists is a massive government subsidy.

Does religion play any role, in the U.S. or elsewhere? In some places and times, yes. People who strongly believe in a faith that commands followers to go forth and multiply are likely to do that with more gusto than those who don't. Mormon Utah is a pretty good demonstration of that. But the power of faith to make babies shouldn't be exaggerated. Economics and other factors influence believers like everybody else. Even Utah has seen its fertility rate fall from 4.3 in 1960 to 2.4.

But the fundamental problem with the Pope's conclusion about declining fertility isn't that he's fingered the wrong culprit. It's that he assumes there is a cause. One cause.

In that, he's far from alone. Conservatives make this assumption all the time. So do most people. Bring up the subject, and you can be sure someone will say it's the result of rising infertility. No, someone else will say, it's the lack of child care. Or maybe it's abortion. Or the fact that women have left the kitchen and gone to the office.

"Why aren't we having babies?" wrote a female columnist in the Globe and Mail recently. "I think it's pretty simple."

That's the problem. Everybody thinks it's pretty simple. But it's not. It's bloody complicated.

Researchers have found that in many cases -- Canada among them -- factors such as the economic costs of raising children play important roles. But precisely which factors are involved, to what degree and in what combination, are not clear.

No one likes to be told there is no simple answer. But that's what the research shows. This thing is big and complicated and we are only beginning to grapple with it.

Of course, it's a lot more satisfying to ignore inconvenient facts and blame it all on something you don't like -- secularism, feminism, whatever. But that doesn't help us understand the problem. And it sure won't produce effective solutions.

So if the Pope is really concerned about falling fertility -- and I hope he is -- he could help do something about it by putting down the Bible and picking up a book about demographics.

You can contact Dan Gardner at the Ottawa Citizen.
E-mail: dgardner@thecitizen.canwest.com

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